Automobile

Journal Title, Volume, Page:

Journal of Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor and Francis Publishers, UK, Vol. 25, pp.311-331

Year of Publication:

2002

Link:

http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=732170

Authors:

Abu-Eisheh, S A

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, An-Najah National University, Nablus. Palestine

Current Affiliation:

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, An-Najah National University, Nablus. Palestine

[email protected]

MANNERING, F L

Department of Civil Engineering , University of Washington , 201 More Hall, Box 352700, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

Preferred Abstract (Original):

The dynamic characteristics of automobile demand are critical for national economic and revenue predictions. Automobile demand and ownership level forecasts are also the basis for travel demand models, land use-transport interaction models, and transport policies and regulations. This article develops a dynamic automobile demand simulation model using a simultaneous-equation system. The system considers the interaction between supply and demand and the resulting equilibrium. The model includes the current and lagged automobile quantity and price variables; economic, financial and operating cost variables; and income and government policy variables. The capabilities of the model are demonstrated through performing a number of simulation experiments considering various growth-development scenarios, changes in operating costs, government policies towards automobile imports, and demographic/employment shifts.

An-Najah Staff

Forecasting Automobile Demand Using A Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation System