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تحليل القرارات Decision Analysis

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Fri, 2010-04-23 20:18 — Mohammed Abdel Khaliq Dwikat
Course Code: 
132437
Course Outline: 

Course Outline              

 MIS132437 Decision Analysis

Second Semester 2009/2010

Instructor: Mohammed AM Dwikat        email: dwikatmo@najah.edu            

Course: Second Semester Spring 2010

COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course is intended to provide basic knowledge of the main elements involved in decision making, decision modeling, decision analysis approach, decision trees and the value of information, decision making under certainty, decision making under risk, decision making under uncertainty. This course will focus on decision analysis and sensitivity analysis using MS-Excel.

 

COURSE OBJECTIVES

            Students who successfully finish this course are expected to:

  • Recognize the different types of decision-making situation.
  • Be able to apply a structured approach to main important professional and personal decisions.
  • Appreciate and evaluate the importance of information and modeling in decision making.

CONTENTS :

WEEK 1

Elements of decision problems, decision modeling and decision approach.

WEEK 2

 Excel essentials- Formulas, Functions, Data Types, Formats,charts

Week 3

Excel Add ins. Built in Add-ins, Goal Seek, Solver. User Defined Add ins.

WEEK 4

 First Exam – Part I, Decision making under risk ,Decision Making under certainty

WEEK 5

What if analysis: Threshold values, Break even points.

WEEK 6

One variable data table, two variables data table
Overall Worst Case and Best Case

WEEK 7

First Exam – Part II, Sensitivity Analysis Using SensIt

WEEK 8

Decision making under uncertainty. Using what if analysis, charts

WEEK 9

Simulation Without Add-Ins

WEEK 10

Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim

WEEK 11

Random Number Generator Functions

WEEK 12

Modeling Waiting Lines- Queue Simulation,Second Exam 

 

Decision Trees, Decision Tree Structure, Nodes and Branches, Terminal Values

WEEK 13

Decision Trees Using TreePlan, Anatomy of a TreePlan Decision Tree, TreePlan Inputs and Formulas

WEEK 14

Strategies in Decision Trees, Payoff Distribution, Strategy Choice, Certain Equivalent,

WEEK 15

Sensitivity Analysis for Decision Trees, One-Variable Sensitivity Analysis, Two-Variable Sensitivity Analysis,

WEEK 16

Decision Trees with Multiattribute Outcomes ,Review

 

REQUIRED TEXT

  1. Michael R. Middleton, “Decision Analysis Using Microsoft® Excel”, 7th edition, August, 2007.
  2. Some additional reading materials will be distributed during classes.

 

EXTRA REFERENCES

Goodwin, P. and G. Wright, “ Decision Analysis for Management Judgment”,3rd edition, Wiley, 2001.

Taha, H.A., “Operations Research: An Introduction”, 7th edition, Prentice- Hall, 2003.

Class Participation

You are expected to attend classes and participate actively in discussions.  There will be a subjective evaluation of your contribution in class. The quality of your contribution is more important than the quantity. Class attendance will be monitored and will be factored into the class participation points.

COURSE EVALUATION                                                                                

  1. Firs Exam (Part I & Part II)            25%            Monday 22/02/2010
  2. Second Exam                                25%            Monday 29/03/2010
  3. Final Exam                                    40%            as assigned
  4. Cases’ analysis/participation …     10%

TOTAL                                           100%

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